Revisiting resilience to crises with an integrated complex systems approach

Project description

Using the example of public mobility, we are researching the question of how measures with seemingly contradictory consequences can be decided for simultaneous crises in order to make systems more resilient and to be able to plan ahead. To this end, we integrate a multi-layered methodological toolbox on complex networked dynamical systems and use it to investigate the impact of decisions in the field of public mobility with respect to their consequences on the spread of a pandemic and on emissions relevant to climate change. Policy decisions include, but are not limited to, regulations, support for or restrictions on public transportation and shared mobility services, and any actions with concurrent environmental and epidemic spread impacts. We build on a MatSim/EpiSim framework that captures detailed scenario-driven and agent-based simulations of mobility dynamics across all modes of transportation based on a spectrum of data sources of individual mobility decisions and aggregate mobility demand. Additional simulations and dedicated software enable capture, visualization, and support control and management of crowding and flows relevant to public transportation. In a proof-of-concept example, we explore which structures and processes of data collection, scenario development, result exploitation, and external communication should be systematically conceptualized, built, and developed, especially for policy advice. With the help of international actors working in similar contexts, we are implementing a foundation for a networked platform and rapid responder unit that will allow shorter-term requests from policymakers to be communicated in a beneficial way under the constraints of scientific research and intrinsic uncertainties of scientific results.

Project data

Funding Body Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (Federal Ministry of Education and Research, BMBF)
Funding 601,704.00 €
Duration 07/21 - 12/21
Contact Marc Timme,